11 Tech Predictions for 2008

It's the last day of 2007 so today is the last opportunity for me to make tech predictions for the next year. Here is a list of the technology events that I think will happen in 2008.

1. 802.11n + WiMax = High Speed Internet Everywhere
802.11n will become the standard protocol for wireless networks. Most wireless networks today run on the a, b, and g flavors of 802.11, but the large speed increase offered by n will cause many companies and consumers to upgrade. This will be coupled with an uptake in WiMax as carriers follow Sprint's XOHM offering with their own versions (assuming that XOHM is successful). Furthermore, carriers will provide a seamless way for users to transfer from their WiMax connections to their home network. That means that if you are downloading a large file while driving home from work, the download will begin on the WiMax network and then transfer to your 802.11n home wireless network once you are in range without dropping the connection. You will also only be charged for the portion on the download that occurred on the WiMax connection. All of this means that customers in the United States will finally have true ubiquitous high speed internet connections which will open a host of new business opportunities.

2. Location Awareness Comes to the Masses
Two years ago most cell phone owners had never heard of Bluetooth. Today, it is practically a required feature in most wireless headsets. This will also happen for cell phone based GPS. Whether it is true GPS (provided via satellite) or cell tower triangulation, location awareness will become a killer application for mobile devices. On a sad note, I think that a few abducted children will be found and rescued due to having a location aware device on their person. This will drive the adoption of this technology, and, yes, parents will begin to use services that put a chip in their children to "keep them safe". The privacy concerns of having constant information about the location of individuals will be a hotly debated issue (as I discussed here). Also, religious groups will protest putting chips in people arguing that it is the mark of the best.

3. The Server Comes Home
As more households in the United States acquire high speed internet access, large amounts of digital content (e.g., MP3's, documents, video files, game, etc.) will accumulate in homes on a variety of devices (e.g., desktops, laptops, game consoles, iPods, etc.). This will create a need to consolidate all of this content, protect it in case a device fails, and also share it between devices. Therefore, consumers will begin buying home servers that provide this functionality. Such a server will not usually be a primary or secondary computer because it will sit in a corner or closet and be dedicated to background tasks. These tasks include backing up the data on all of the devices owned by the household and streaming content between devices. So, you'll be able to stream music from you iPod to your stereo system, or, conversely, if you have an iPod with video, you can stream video from a DVD player to the iPod while you stroll around the block. Also, due to the ubiquitous internet access that I discussed above, if you forget an important file at home, you can simply access it from your home server instead of leaving work. A popular operating system for this home server will be Microsoft's Windows Home Server, but Apple will try to break into the market with an improved Apple TV.

4. IPTV Finally Comes of Age
Although long predicted by tech prognosticators, IPTV (Internet Protocol Television) will finally take off. This will allow telephone providers such as AT&T to provide television programming over DSL connections much to the chagrin of cable companies like Comcast. Furthermore, consumers will increasingly look online for video entertainment after getting burned from the fallout of the recent writers strike. The availability of cheap video cameras, easy to use video editing software, and high speed internet access along with the popularity of video sharing sites like YouTube will allow small creative teams to produce high quality video programs and publish them via the Internet. There will be at least one online video program that finds mainstream success (meaning that blue collar workers will talk about it the next day at work).

5. Online Automobiles
The spread of ubiquitous internet access will allow automobiles to be constantly connected to the internet. This will allow drivers to receive online content such as movies, music, and games over that air to their vehicles. Just as DVD players and satellite radio are becoming popular features on cars, new car buyers will want to turn their cars into mobile entertainment centers via the power of the internet. So, instead of deciding what CD's or DVD's to stock in your car, you can simply download songs and music to your vehicle or stream them from your home server. Ironically, getting entertainment in this manner will be cheaper than installing optical readers (for CD's and DVD's) and satellite antennas since many manufacturers will strike a deal similar to the one that Amazon struck with Sprint for their Kindle device. That means the high speed connection to the vehicles will be free, but users will pay to download premium content. This will also drive an increase in the installation of high capacity hard drives in cars to store all of this online content.

6. Mobile Social Networking
The popularity of sites like FaceBook will spread from the PC to mobile devices. Users already use cell phones to send messages and update their social network profiles via SMS and MMS. As the microcelebrity phenomena continues, people will begin to become interact with their hundreds of social network "friends" in the physical world. If you're on a train going into the city, you'll get an SMS message stating that someone from your friend list is on the same train. You can chose to message that friend and meet or ignore it and keep the relationship virtual. Or, if you decide to go to a movie in a couple of hours, your friends will be alerted once you purchase the tickets online. They can meet you there and watch with you. Of course, privacy concerns will run rampant, but successful social networks will implement easy to use automatic controls to keep stalkers at bay.

7. Cell Phone Commerce
Major retailers will allow customers to purchase items using their cell phone. You will be able to go to the checkout line and receive an SMS message with the bill. You can reply to accept the charge which will be billed to your cell phone bill, credit card, or personal bank account. This is a precursor to the fully automated checkout that I wrote about here.

8. Microsoft Releases Online version of Office
In the face of competition from Google Docs and Zoho, Microsoft will release a full online version of office. You will be able to go to a website and get full access to Microsoft Word, Excel, and Powerpoint similar to the way Microsoft provides Outlook Web Access as an online version of Microsoft Outlook. This will gain popularity in the business world due to increased security and automated backup. However, this technology will fail to gain widespread traction with consumers since they will be slow to give up the desktop version of Office. Therefore, the products offered by Google and Zoho will reign in the consumer space since they are much cheaper than Microsoft Office.

9. Google Offers a Database
Google will offer a free database similar to Amazon's SimpleDB. It will be a part of Google Documents, and it will offer a free online version of the functionality offered by Microsoft Access. Not only will the offering provide the creation of relational tables, but simple forms can be built.

10. Digg and Facebook Get Purchased
Both sites have gained astronomic evaluations, and their owners will cash in before the bottom drops. Kevin Rose and Mark Zuckerburg do not want to go back to eating Raman noodles.

11. Google Buys Wikipedia
Similar to Google's purchase of YouTube after the failure of Google Video, Google will buy Wikipedia after the failure of Google Knol. Those donation ads at the top of every Wikipedia page will finally go away, and you will finally be able to use fuzzy logic when searching through Wikipedia.

That does it for my predictions. I'll circle back and see how I did at the end of 2008.